Tuesday, June 14, 2011

TBT I'm dynamite, cause I'm TBT and I'll win the fight!

Time for some perspective on the 20 year inverse bond fund symbol TBT.

I think that this is a great long-term buy point.  Could she hang out around this level some more?  Sure.  But as I like a good entry point on a trade, there is plenty of upside and limited downside.  So, without further ado, let's look at the chart.


























She's just broke a downtrend that has lasted a little over 2 months.  In the short-term, it has to break through 35, and then make an assault on 36, and 39.  Of course, not "if" but "when" the Fed makes QE3 public this puppy could come right back to the level it is now.  When Hanky Bernanky is buying the debt, it tends to drive the price up, and the yield down, so for an inverse bond fund, bond price up bad, bond price down good. 

If you have some dry powder, this could be a good long-term play if you believe that bonds yeilds must rise in the future due to the degradation of the US Federal debt situation.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

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