Interesting Patterns

Just some quick charts for everyone.

First, my two silver studs for the duration of this silver market.  If you like silver stocks, these are my favorite 2.

SVM

And now for SLW

And GPL, Great Panther, a nice junior silver miner.

So, you may want to nibble at some silver positions.  I am still expecting a rise into May, and then a summer correction or consolidation.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Don't go APE for APE.V

Sorry to anyone who bought APE.V.  Out today is the story that Bolivia may nationalize their silver mines.  See link to story at zero hedge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-silver-surge-following-nationalization-bolivias-silver-mines-president-evo-morales

If you own it, I'd sell it.  Also, CDE getting hit hard by the news as one of their mines (San Bartolome) is in Bolivia as well.  PAAS, same story.

Don't think I'm not paying the price on this as well.  I bought this stock via TD Ameritrade about 3 weeks ago.  As they underwent a name change (defined as a corporate action), the stock transfer agent has not yet delivered the shares to my account, and I am stuck holding this until the matter is cleared up, i.e.the new stock certs are delivered.  I can't sell even if I wanted to.  What a killer!

On the other hand, all of the other silver stocks fairing much better today.  As mentioned in the above article, I think the silver market is nervous as to reduced production which would squeeze an already tight physical silver market.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Thar She Blows!

OK, I may have been a little off in my 4-7 day projection for a rest for the metals.  Coming on like gangbusters today. 

Gold and silver are busting higher today and dollar is headed to the toilet, again.  I've started to buy back some of my positions I sold on Monday this week.  Got to be quick in this market.  I am going to wait and see if the metals open higher tomorrow after today's fantastic close.  If they are showing good strength, I will load up to my full allocation again.

It's hard to trade this market, but I am doing the best I can right now.

Charts on the next update.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter.

You people are all about the stocks!!!

Just checking my blogger posts, and I see that most of the recs that I put out there are well read.  That's good, and honestly I enjoy that you are reading those posts, but there is more to just buying junior resource stocks.  It's also about selling at the right time!!

Remember, we are surfing the wave out there, and right now the Gold and Silver wave are crashing down from their highs.  You don't want to be getting the crap kicked out of you right now buy buying everything in sight.  I think gold and silver will be correcting for about the next 4 - 7 days, but after that they should be up for a nice rally into the May timeframe.  After that, it's the summertime blues for the PM's, and I intend to sit it out from end of May to mid August.

See the gold and silver charts.  Look how MACD, Williams, and Stochastics are all rolling over.  It's riskier to buy here or hold here, than selling.

Quick question for anyone out there.  What's the symbol for gold and silver on freestockcharts? Anyone know.  On stockcharts it's $gold and $silver, but can't find them for this charting software.  In any case, if anyone knows, just leave me a message in the comments section.

I may try and do some timing on some individual juniors or play some options on some of the bigger gold and silver names during the lull, but only if I see bargains that merit a short-term play.  Let me tell you, I have gotten burned during this Precious Metals run for the last 10 years.  I got absolutely slaughtered in the 2008 wreck, but I imagine most people did who were heavy into the metals.  Thank the good Lord that I held on, and recovered quite nicely during 2009.  It was a gut wrenching time.

So, I am trying to be smarter about timing some of these moves.  On Monday, I sold a lot of my positions.  Honestly, I looked at the stocks and the metals on Monday morning, and they were not acting correctly.  Silver was pushing $42, but the stocks weren't along for the ride.  So, I started selling most of my PM positions, and have avoided the 10% haircut I would have taken if I had held on to everything.  The trick now for me, is to get back in if I think we are still headed up for the month of May.  And I do believe that is the case.  I played my instincts earlier this week (see my last post about selling SQI.V and SPM.TO), and now I have to play the re-entry smart as well. 

So, even though you may not enjoy reading my other posts, I do recommend you pay attention to them as well.  At least skim them.

So, at this point, you might want to put in some buy orders another 5-10% below current prices, but I wouldn't be buying hand over fist yet.  Big picture, give the metals another 4-7 days, and I think they'll be ready to take out the old highs sometime in May.

To all those that took a a$$ kickin over the last couple of days, my regards.  I have been there all too often.  I got lucky this time, but I still have to re-enter.  That's just as tricky.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Selling SQI.V and SPM.TO - Get some dry powder!

I am selling my positions in SQI.V and SPM.TO (Silver Quest and Scorpio).  I am still a long-term buyer of these stocks, but they have run up quite nicely over the last 3 weeks, and it's time to unload.  If you don't want to sell your whole position, that's fine, but I would at least lighten your load to 50% of your original stake.

I'm up 50% and 25% in these, and they are both extremely overbought right now.  Remember, we are going to surf this precious metals run like a wave.  Waves go up and down people!  I prefer not to ride the down wave.

If you look at these stocks via stockcharts or freestockcharts you will see that RSI and MACD are getting ready to roll over.  Very hard for the stock to keep rising when these two indicators are about to come down.

This wouldn't be a bad time to hedge any other silver positions with either puts on the SIL or buying the double silver bear fund ZSL.

I'll let you know when I am buying back in, but for now, I'm a seller into strength, not a buyer.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Going APE for a new junior silver?

I have a certain screen in my yahoo finance portfolios section (very useful for watching a large amount of stocks) that has mostly silver juniors.  You can set it to show what the charts look like on a yearly basis.  Lo and behold, I came across one that looked interesting.  Let's dial up the chart, shall we?

The name of the company is Apogee Silver, and the symbol is APE.V.

Next we have the important stats:

Shares O/S: 284 Mio - Tad high, but respectible share structure for a junior. Just did a private placement of 71.5 million shares, raising 20.2 million dollars.  You don't raise this type of money unless you have plans for it.

Resources:  Good resources in both Bolivia and Chile.  Two countries which are mining friendly.  They have NI 43-101 resources of 79 million ounces of silver equivalents.  The most important property is the Pulacayo property, and the first one that would produce any silver.

Development: They want to initiate high grade mining and custom milling for early cash flow.  They will then use this money to increase resoucres through the drill bit. See page 10 of presentation for their plan.  Also, see page 13 of presentation for their drilling plans.  What I'm excited about is all of the drilling that will be done to expand this resouce.  In fact, see latest news release about hole 170, 173, and 176.  Link is here:
http://www.apogeeminerals.com/apog/?cat=1

Price:  See page 22 of presentation.  Price of stock is based on a silver price of 28.31 per ounce.  As silver is over 40 now, I only see upside from their projection.  Silver will probably correct here, but I don't see it dipping more than 5-6 bucks.  Still way above 28 per ounce.

Here's the link to the presentation:  http://www.apogeeminerals.com/apog/?page_id=92

If you feel that you need to put some money to work, this stock may not be a bad play over the short term.

FD:  I own this stock, and have not been paid to write about it.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Pop goes the Weasel (Nice move today!)

For all of you getting nervous about the recent move in gold and silver lately, get used to it.  I don't ever expect to feel comfortable during this gold and silver run.  Like I said before, don't get out of this until the Gold:Dow ratio is 1:1.  You have a couple of options.  You can just buy what you like and hold till you see this ratio.  Or you could wait for run ups (like we are having now), and then lighten up or hedge some.  Or you could wait till great corrections in this bull market and only buy then.  I like to have mostly core positions (50-60%), and try to trade or time the rest.

I'd like to share with you an article that I read today about the recent rise in silver and gold since last September time frame.  It might really help you if you are trying to squeeze the last juice out of this latest push before lightening up a little or hedging your bets.  Give it a good read and decide for yourself.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301924290.php

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter