Monday, April 25, 2011

Great Panther - Need a new strategy!

Great Panther - I had great hopes as of late, but alas.  It looks tired, and silver may be in the midst of a nice correction as well.

Here's the chart:


As I have noted in the chart.  It appears that our asymetrical triangle has reached its end, and has decided to hand those who bought within the triangle a nice loss so far.

Don't give up hope, as I think all is not lost.  Another intresting characteristic is the MACD indicator.  It's getting pretty low, or oversold as it was at the end of January.  You can see what happened at that point.  The indicator turned up and the stock had a nice run from around $1.80 to close to $5.00.  So, I think it's possibly getting ready to turn soon.

I would set up a buy order between 2.90 and 3.00.  If you get filled, it will be at a low-risk point, with more upside than downside.

If you're a trader, I'd look to sell around the $4.00 point.  If you are a buy and hold thru this bull PM market, then it would be a nice place to establish a position.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Friday, April 22, 2011

Why this could be nothing short of MONUMENTal!

It's Good Friday, and I thought I would try to share something good with you.  I was thinking of profiling one stock, but have had another pop up on my radar via other methods.  You see, I look at a lot of juniors.  Some I get from news releases, some I get from charts, some from publications, and some from "other" sources.  Consider this an "other" source.  It's not insider trading info, so don't worry about that.  I keep my ear to the ground....and sometimes I do hear "rumblings".  I heard a rumbling earlier today which lead me on my somewhat wild goosechase.  Granted, it took me awhile to find it, but I do think I've discovered something...MONUMENTal.

My new suggestion (as they are all just suggestions for you to further investigate) is a junior gold producer.  Yeah, that's right, I said producer.  They are pouring the dore as I type.  Although it's 11 pm here, it's all the way around the world, so it's probably daytime where the mine is.  They started out small, and have produced 1,400 ounces in their first Q of operation, 4,100 in their second Q of operation, 8,200 in their 3rd Q of operation....and finally 11,348 in the last Q of published results with a total cash cost of....wait for it....$265 an ounce.  So, not a huge amount produced, but not a real large cash cost per ounce either.  And get this.  They actually have earnings.  Net income was $5.4 million and EPS was 3 cents per share.

Drum roll please..........not yet.  You didn't say the magic word.

Here's a press release talking about future increases in production.  Read it and don't be lazy.

Production Increase Planned
Having successfully reached commercial production with its 400,000 tonne per annum gold treatment plant and building cash reserves, the Company will commence construction of its planned Phase III expansion to lift the gold treatment plant capacity to 1,000,000 tonne per annum.

This 250% expansion in production capacity will be funded from current cash reserves, is expected to cost less than C$8,000,000 and will result in a projected pay-back of 3 months from operating cash flow. The expansion is scheduled to reach practical completion by the end of calendar year 2011 and be in full operation by April 2012. 

There will be some disruption to the present operations during construction and commissioning of the new equipment, however the Company projects gold production will remain at 40,000 ounces of gold for year ended 30th June 2011 and increase to no less than 50,000 ounces per year for the year ending 30th June 2012. The company will make further announcement on the projected gold production targets from June, 2012 onwards pending plant commissioning and the 2011 exploration program resulting in a new reserve and resource statement.

The development and construction of the current mine and processing facility has shown the Company has built the capability to design, permit and construct low cost and efficient treatment facilities. This owner capability will be utilized to project manage the Phase III expansion.

General Manager, Kevin Wright who oversaw the construction of the existing mine and mill stated "this plant will not only provide an increase in production capability and operating efficiency but will also provide necessary operating flexibility for processing blended feed as the operations mature. Extensions to the ore zones identified by our exploration efforts along strike and down dip are likely to produce an increase in variability of ore types and our in-house design team has taken this into account".

How bout we do the chart next?  Why not?






















As you can tell by the chart it's Monument Mining.

They are a miner who operates in Malaysia and their costs are extremely low.  When you have cash cost per ounce of less than 300 and gold is selling for around 1,500, that's pretty good cash flow.  You can fund a lot of exploration, pay down any debt, etc...

The one stinker on their FS that I did find was that they do have a gold forward in place where they have hedged 5000 ounces of gold to be delivered at a price of $1,000 an ounce.  If you look at their income statement, you will see that they lost almost $4 million on this thing in the last quarter.  Meaning, they could have had earnings of close to 10 million without it.  Something to keep an eye on.

Looking at earnings though, let's say the earn 3 cents a share each quarter for a year, then annual earnings around 12 cents a year, so PE of only around 4 at current prices. 

You can see though that they are adding another milling circuit in order to increase production in 2013 to between 70K and 100k gold ounces.  This year's projection around 40 K, next year 50K, and the following year 70-100k.

Two things I really like are the low cost per ounce and the fact that they got this mine up and running in a short period of time. 

Here's the links to the current presentation:  http://www.monumentmining.com/main/?en&corporatepresentation

And the most recent MD&A that has selected FS date:  http://www.monumentmining.com/main/?en&financialStatements  To get the full FS, go to SEDAR.com. 

I have a suspicion that volume could be somewhat heavier on Monday or Tuesday as I will be buying!

FD:  I have no shares in Monumental Mining (but plan on buying on Monday), and I have not been paid by any parties for writing this article.

Now for my own shameless plea:  If you like anything I have written, please forward my website to a friend (or enemy) who likes this sector, and enjoys a good read.  I only make a very small amount of $ from people clicking on ads on my website.  I have made a whopping $10 so far.  I'm not complaining, but if you break that down in terms of cents per word...I make very little.  I only buy beer with this money as to help me stay up late and write articles.  More than getting piddly money, I really enjoy seeing the counter go up on my blog, so share with a friend, put a link on your facebook page, etc...  Done with my mini-plea.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

All of my posts can be viewed at www.beforeitsnews.com as well as on my website.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Do the monkey yeah yeah! (APE.V Related)

Story out today about the Bolivian mine nationalization program.  Snatching the assets from companies may have hit a snag per this story.


So, what's up with my APE.V pick?  Well, you can imagine.  Here's the daily chart today.























So, if you're feeling lucky punk....well are you?  Then get back in, but know that this issue may not be over yet per the article.  It's always political, isn't it.

For all those who recognize the title, here's the music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-02YnMmE-Ko

Until the next time....

Fiat Doubter

This guy irks me

Bob Moriarty runs a website called 321gold.  All in all, it's a good site.  However, I think he uses his sight to pump his own portfolio far too often.  Unlike me, he has a real following that act on his advice, and thus really affects the share price.

He posted the following a ways back in response to a small time blogger who wanted Bob to post his article to his website.  The article is below:

The date of it is March 25th almost 4 weeks ago.

Bob MoriartyArchives
Mar 25, 2011

Price is always right. Opinions are often wrong. I’d love to take credit for being the first to say that but I’m not.
I wrote recently about silver getting toppy and said that when I saw a temporary top I’d say so.
So. It’s a temporary top. Silver has doubled since late August. It’s gone up about 45% since a small correction at the end of January and all sorts of pundits are claiming that silver is moving from weak hands into strong hands. Silver was up today for the 7th day in a row before collapsing and causing an outside day.
We may have a couple more days of rises but this market is getting pretty tired.
People who bought silver at $4 an ounce or $5 or $6, those are strong hands. Those are the strongest of strong hands. Every person selling silver today as it went through $38 sold at a profit. The strong hands sold into the weakest of weak hands. It’s weak hands buying right now, the guys who made fun of people buying $4 silver.
Ignore the news; silver has no more to do with Portugal and their financial problems or nuclear melt down in Japan than it has to do with the price of kitty litter. Guys reading the news know nothing about commodities or silver. Hell, half the silver bugs don’t know anything about silver, it’s the most over rated investment in the universe right now.
If silver goes up and a black lady won Miss America, the newsreaders say silver went up because a black lady won Miss America. If silver went up and a bullfrog won Miss America, they would dutifully write that silver went up because a bullfrog won Miss America.
Commodites go up and down in a far more random manner than anyone wants to admit. The last time I called a top, I was off by three days and almost $40 in gold. That’s close enough for government work. I might be off by a couple of days in silver and maybe a couple of bucks but I see way too much bullishness.
The next major move in silver is down. A lot more than the silver bulls want to face. When silver permabulls throw in the towel and give up, I’ll be a buyer again.

Mar 24, 2011###Bob MoriartyPresident: 321goldArchives

So, just want to point out that 4 weeks after this self-proclaimed expert called a top, "within a couple of days", he said, silver is still going up.  Has there been a retraction on his website to call himself out?  Of course not.  Eventually silver is going to correct, but it wasn't when he predicted.

My advice for all the experts out there - you don't know jack.  You're just guessing like the rest of us.  It's not the fact that he is wrong that bothers me so much, but rather the way that he said it.  We are all fallable, and the minute you forget that, is the minute you make a fool of yourself. 

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Just like Craps - Rolling 6 the hard way

The gold and silver market are just a little....crazy lately.  Silver is grossly overbought, once again, and gold is making it's way there as well.  The really weird think about this is the non-confmation in all of the silver and gold stocks.  This really reminds me of a good craps game.  Sometimes things are going your way, and you can even roll the 6's the hard way, and they just keep coming.  There's no logic, you think it shouldn't happen again, and there it goes again.  "Six the hard way!"  Pay the man.

Gold chart lately:
























Not too extended over the 50 MDA, but it's getting there.  Note that gold has been consolidating its gain's for the last 6 months, so I can't say that a breakout is too surprising here.

Now for silver, the shiny little brother of the PM family.

























Silver has been on a mission lately.  Notice the moderate correction in January and the mini correction in mid-March.  That's been about it lately.

Now food for thought.  Runaway moves defy logic, and ignore technical indicators.  So, if gold and silver start the vertical climb due to rapid dollar devaluation, or some other unforeseen world event, we could be riding a real wild stallion until mid-May or so.  I still plan on exiting most of my PM positions in May, and getting back in the game around August.

I think the real head-scratcher is the non-confirmation of the gold and silver stocks.  Let's use the GDX for gold stocks and SIL for silver stocks. 

GDX
























I would have hoped to see GDX take off yesterday, but it did seem to have a good showing today.  Let's see if this support holds

And for SIL.
























Looks very similar to GDX.  However, as Silver is outperforming gold right now, I would have hoped to see SIL take off already.

So, the less risky of the two options here is probably the GDX play.  I just feel that Silver is more likely to correct a lot sharper than gold at this point.

I'm still pretty well stocked up on gold and silver stocks at the moment, so I am hoping for some better action out of them tomorrow.  I may have a nice gold junior to talk about tomorrow.  It's got a great looking chart for an entry buy, and it actually has gold reserves as it is just adjacent to a another gold play with a lot of resource ounces.  Nothing like being next to a biggin!!

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Fat Bottom Girls?

Close.  How about some double bottom (girls)?  I like this stock as it is in mine friendly USA (as opposed to Bolivia lately) and is a major silver producer at a negative cost per ounce.

Who can it be now?  Sorry, can't stop the musical references.

Hecla Mining of course, or HL.

Now, don't get me wrong, it's good silver major producer, but I got that annual report today, and the EPS from 2009 to 2010 actually shrank.  How you can do that in today's market of rising silver prices is beyond me.  But, I'm not a fundamentalist, I'm a technician.  What I see today is a double bottom, and a possible short term gain should the formation come to fruition.  However, they do have some issues with the EPA that came to light in the last quarterly report.  Do you own DD.

Here it is:
























Play at your own risk, but I just bought HL June 6 calls today.  Hoping to exit the trade when HL hits 11 for a nice gain.  I'll let you know how it turns out.

Some music while you think about it.

This was the least controversial video I could find.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEbEMjKitA4&feature=related

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Interesting Patterns

Just some quick charts for everyone.

First, my two silver studs for the duration of this silver market.  If you like silver stocks, these are my favorite 2.

SVM
























And now for SLW



And GPL, Great Panther, a nice junior silver miner.




So, you may want to nibble at some silver positions.  I am still expecting a rise into May, and then a summer correction or consolidation.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Don't go APE for APE.V

Sorry to anyone who bought APE.V.  Out today is the story that Bolivia may nationalize their silver mines.  See link to story at zero hedge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-silver-surge-following-nationalization-bolivias-silver-mines-president-evo-morales

If you own it, I'd sell it.  Also, CDE getting hit hard by the news as one of their mines (San Bartolome) is in Bolivia as well.  PAAS, same story.

Don't think I'm not paying the price on this as well.  I bought this stock via TD Ameritrade about 3 weeks ago.  As they underwent a name change (defined as a corporate action), the stock transfer agent has not yet delivered the shares to my account, and I am stuck holding this until the matter is cleared up, i.e.the new stock certs are delivered.  I can't sell even if I wanted to.  What a killer!

On the other hand, all of the other silver stocks fairing much better today.  As mentioned in the above article, I think the silver market is nervous as to reduced production which would squeeze an already tight physical silver market.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Thar She Blows!

OK, I may have been a little off in my 4-7 day projection for a rest for the metals.  Coming on like gangbusters today. 

Gold and silver are busting higher today and dollar is headed to the toilet, again.  I've started to buy back some of my positions I sold on Monday this week.  Got to be quick in this market.  I am going to wait and see if the metals open higher tomorrow after today's fantastic close.  If they are showing good strength, I will load up to my full allocation again.

It's hard to trade this market, but I am doing the best I can right now.

Charts on the next update.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

You people are all about the stocks!!!

Just checking my blogger posts, and I see that most of the recs that I put out there are well read.  That's good, and honestly I enjoy that you are reading those posts, but there is more to just buying junior resource stocks.  It's also about selling at the right time!!

Remember, we are surfing the wave out there, and right now the Gold and Silver wave are crashing down from their highs.  You don't want to be getting the crap kicked out of you right now buy buying everything in sight.  I think gold and silver will be correcting for about the next 4 - 7 days, but after that they should be up for a nice rally into the May timeframe.  After that, it's the summertime blues for the PM's, and I intend to sit it out from end of May to mid August.

See the gold and silver charts.  Look how MACD, Williams, and Stochastics are all rolling over.  It's riskier to buy here or hold here, than selling.

Quick question for anyone out there.  What's the symbol for gold and silver on freestockcharts? Anyone know.  On stockcharts it's $gold and $silver, but can't find them for this charting software.  In any case, if anyone knows, just leave me a message in the comments section.
















































I may try and do some timing on some individual juniors or play some options on some of the bigger gold and silver names during the lull, but only if I see bargains that merit a short-term play.  Let me tell you, I have gotten burned during this Precious Metals run for the last 10 years.  I got absolutely slaughtered in the 2008 wreck, but I imagine most people did who were heavy into the metals.  Thank the good Lord that I held on, and recovered quite nicely during 2009.  It was a gut wrenching time.

So, I am trying to be smarter about timing some of these moves.  On Monday, I sold a lot of my positions.  Honestly, I looked at the stocks and the metals on Monday morning, and they were not acting correctly.  Silver was pushing $42, but the stocks weren't along for the ride.  So, I started selling most of my PM positions, and have avoided the 10% haircut I would have taken if I had held on to everything.  The trick now for me, is to get back in if I think we are still headed up for the month of May.  And I do believe that is the case.  I played my instincts earlier this week (see my last post about selling SQI.V and SPM.TO), and now I have to play the re-entry smart as well. 

So, even though you may not enjoy reading my other posts, I do recommend you pay attention to them as well.  At least skim them.

So, at this point, you might want to put in some buy orders another 5-10% below current prices, but I wouldn't be buying hand over fist yet.  Big picture, give the metals another 4-7 days, and I think they'll be ready to take out the old highs sometime in May.

To all those that took a a$$ kickin over the last couple of days, my regards.  I have been there all too often.  I got lucky this time, but I still have to re-enter.  That's just as tricky.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Monday, April 11, 2011

Selling SQI.V and SPM.TO - Get some dry powder!

I am selling my positions in SQI.V and SPM.TO (Silver Quest and Scorpio).  I am still a long-term buyer of these stocks, but they have run up quite nicely over the last 3 weeks, and it's time to unload.  If you don't want to sell your whole position, that's fine, but I would at least lighten your load to 50% of your original stake.

I'm up 50% and 25% in these, and they are both extremely overbought right now.  Remember, we are going to surf this precious metals run like a wave.  Waves go up and down people!  I prefer not to ride the down wave.

If you look at these stocks via stockcharts or freestockcharts you will see that RSI and MACD are getting ready to roll over.  Very hard for the stock to keep rising when these two indicators are about to come down.

This wouldn't be a bad time to hedge any other silver positions with either puts on the SIL or buying the double silver bear fund ZSL.

I'll let you know when I am buying back in, but for now, I'm a seller into strength, not a buyer.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Going APE for a new junior silver?

I have a certain screen in my yahoo finance portfolios section (very useful for watching a large amount of stocks) that has mostly silver juniors.  You can set it to show what the charts look like on a yearly basis.  Lo and behold, I came across one that looked interesting.  Let's dial up the chart, shall we?

The name of the company is Apogee Silver, and the symbol is APE.V.
























Next we have the important stats:

Shares O/S: 284 Mio - Tad high, but respectible share structure for a junior. Just did a private placement of 71.5 million shares, raising 20.2 million dollars.  You don't raise this type of money unless you have plans for it.

Resources:  Good resources in both Bolivia and Chile.  Two countries which are mining friendly.  They have NI 43-101 resources of 79 million ounces of silver equivalents.  The most important property is the Pulacayo property, and the first one that would produce any silver.

Development: They want to initiate high grade mining and custom milling for early cash flow.  They will then use this money to increase resoucres through the drill bit. See page 10 of presentation for their plan.  Also, see page 13 of presentation for their drilling plans.  What I'm excited about is all of the drilling that will be done to expand this resouce.  In fact, see latest news release about hole 170, 173, and 176.  Link is here:
http://www.apogeeminerals.com/apog/?cat=1

Price:  See page 22 of presentation.  Price of stock is based on a silver price of 28.31 per ounce.  As silver is over 40 now, I only see upside from their projection.  Silver will probably correct here, but I don't see it dipping more than 5-6 bucks.  Still way above 28 per ounce.

Here's the link to the presentation:  http://www.apogeeminerals.com/apog/?page_id=92

If you feel that you need to put some money to work, this stock may not be a bad play over the short term.

FD:  I own this stock, and have not been paid to write about it.

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Pop goes the Weasel (Nice move today!)

For all of you getting nervous about the recent move in gold and silver lately, get used to it.  I don't ever expect to feel comfortable during this gold and silver run.  Like I said before, don't get out of this until the Gold:Dow ratio is 1:1.  You have a couple of options.  You can just buy what you like and hold till you see this ratio.  Or you could wait for run ups (like we are having now), and then lighten up or hedge some.  Or you could wait till great corrections in this bull market and only buy then.  I like to have mostly core positions (50-60%), and try to trade or time the rest.

I'd like to share with you an article that I read today about the recent rise in silver and gold since last September time frame.  It might really help you if you are trying to squeeze the last juice out of this latest push before lightening up a little or hedging your bets.  Give it a good read and decide for yourself.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301924290.php

Until the next time...

Fiat Doubter